As of January 9, global shipping prices continued their decline last year. According to the public information of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, which is defined by the industry as the weather vane of the consolidation price, fell significantly in the first week of 2023, down 4.2% compared with the last week of last year.
Due to the weakening of ship demand, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) plunged 17.5% on January 3, the largest one-day decline since 1984.
Industry insiders believe that from the perspective of data, the overall trend of the market in 2022 is relatively weak in both the centralized and bulk transport markets. The sluggish demand for foreign trade is the main reason for the price decline in the global shipping market. The downturn in the global shipping market and the sluggish supply and demand are the main driving factors for the price decline in the domestic shipping market.
Shipping price and container throughput
On the one hand, the shipping price index fell, and on the other hand, the container throughput of many ports achieved positive growth, which can be described as "two days of fire and ice". Many listed companies related to ports have also released performance data for 2022 recently.
On January 4, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Transport released data. According to preliminary statistics, as of December 31, 2022, the cumulative container throughput of Shenzhen Port reached 30.0356 million TEUs, an increase of 4.39% year on year, breaking the 30 million TEU mark for the first time, setting a record high. This is also the fourth port in the world to break 30 million TEUs annually after Shanghai, Singapore and Ningbo Zhoushan Port.
Yantian Port Group's Yantian Port Area, Dachanwan Port Area and Xiaomo Port Area completed a total of 16.3013 million TEUs of container throughput, with a year-on-year increase of 2.29%, accounting for 54.27% of Shenzhen Port. At the same time, Ningbo Port is expected to complete container throughput of 40.72 million TEUs, up 7.3% year on year; The cargo throughput is expected to reach 1.04 billion tons, up 3.5% year on year. In 2022, the container throughput of Shanghai Port exceeded 47.3 million TEUs, ranking first in the world for the 13th consecutive year.
On January 5, Guangzhou Port issued a suggestive announcement of the main production data in 2022. From January to December 2022, the company expects to complete the container throughput of 23.047 million TEUs, up 1.9% year on year; It is estimated that the cargo throughput will be 535.811 million tons, up 1.5% year on year.
"I am satisfied with the main production data mentioned above. In 2022, our foreign trade throughput, sea-rail intermodal transport and imported frozen goods reached a record high. This is the result of the efforts of all the staff of the company under the changing situation of foreign trade and domestic epidemic prevention and control, and basically completed the production tasks set by the company at the beginning of 2022." A relevant person from the Guangzhou Port Board Secretary Office said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily.
At the same time, from the perspective of growth rate, the container throughput of the Beibu Gulf Port has reached 7.0208 million TEUs, up 16.78% year on year. The growth rate is expected to continue to be the first in the coastal provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China, and maintain a double-digit growth rate for six consecutive years.
"The fundamental reason for the coexistence of the inflexion-point collapse of domestic shipping prices and the countertrend growth of container throughput is complex. It is driven by both short-term demand-side shocks and long-term structural factors. In general, it reflects the flexibility and resilience of China's economy. Its long domestic industrial chain layout and supply chain security network promote China's international and domestic dual-cycle strategy in domestic trade and foreign trade Deeply promote mutual integration. " Chen Jia, a researcher at Renmin University of China Monetary Research Institute, told reporters.
It is estimated that the possibility of a sharp rise in sea freight prices in 2023 is low
Chen Jia believes that looking back at the sectional data of the global shipping market in 2022, the shipping market has been high and low in the past year, with both volume and price falling. The fluctuation of global shipping demand is not only associated with the contraction of its own supply-side capacity, but also affects the continuous decline of China's shipping market prices. The development of the shipping industry chain has experienced a challenging year.
Mr. Xu, who is engaged in cross-border e-commerce business in Foshan, said to the reporter, "We have always been very concerned about the price of shipping containers, because it is highly linked to the company's operating costs. From the earlier 'one box is hard to find', the price has become much more friendly and has decreased a lot. We predict that there will be no possibility of a substantial increase in 2023."
"As the Spring Festival approaches, the transport unit price of some land container trucks has increased to a certain extent. Compared with the end of last year, it has indeed rebounded, but the increase is not significant. It is estimated that the possibility of a sharp increase in the past is very low." Some people interviewed from the logistics outlets in the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao said.
"Looking forward to the growth pattern of global trade in 2023, various challenges remain serious, and the negative factors have been magnified. The deepening of stagflation in Europe and the United States has led to an increasing probability of the landing of their economic recession boots. In the context of low global trade volume and price, it is difficult to reproduce the situation of strong counterattack and substantial growth of containers last year this year." Chen Jia analyzed.
Tian Yuan, an associate researcher of the Research Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the maritime market is a relatively competitive market, and the maritime price is the full embodiment of the market supply and demand relationship. The shipping capacity of ships and containers in international shipping has gradually released and increased rapidly. The mismatch between supply and demand has led to a continuous decline in market freight rates.
On the one hand, the price of the shipping market, which is deeply dependent on the prosperity and stability of global trade, is still under high pressure this year; On the other hand, with the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention and control policy, which is conducive to the full release and is expected to boost the total demand for domestic and foreign trade, the probability of stable price decline also exists.
